Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling     

Jalal Samia  Arnaud Temme  Arnold K. Bregt  Jakob Wallinga  John Stuiver  Fausto Guzzetti  Francesca Ardizzone  Mauro Rossi 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2129-2144

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.  相似文献   

Residual-state creep of clastic soil in a reactivated slow-moving landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region,China     

Shun Wang  Wei Wu  Jinge Wang  Zhenyu Yin  Deshan Cui  Wei Xiang 《Landslides》2018,15(12):2413-2422

We study the creep properties of clastic soil in residual state. The intact samples are taken from a reactivated slow-moving landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China. Firstly, the patterns of the landslide movement are analysed based on recent monitoring data, which indicate that the soil within the shear zone is undergoing two deformation processes: a creep phase, characterised by different creep rates, and a dormant phase. We then study the creep behaviour of the soil samples through a series of ring shear creep tests under various shear stress conditions. The creep response depends strongly on the ratio of the shear stress to the residual strength, and the normal effective stress, whereas the creep rate decreases due to strength regain. The long-term strength of the clastic soil is close to the residual strength. Therefore, the residual strength obtained from conventional shear test, which is less time consuming than creep test, can be used in long-term stability analyses of creeping landslides.  相似文献   

Study on the deformation and failure modes of filling slope in loess filling engineering: a case study at a loess mountain airport   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jiading Wang  Yuanjun Xu  Yan Ma  Shaonan Qiao  Kaiqiang Feng 《Landslides》2018,15(12):2423-2435

Lvliang airport is a typical loess filling engineering located in 20.5 km north of Lvliang City in Shanxi Province, China. By the end of March 2012, 14 fissures extending more than 7.5 m were observed in a loess-filled slope, of which the longest fissure is up to 82 m. Field monitoring and laboratory tests have been performed to investigate the slope failure modes. The test program includes wetting tests on unsaturated compacted samples and stress path tests on saturated samples. Field monitoring and observations show that differential settlement caused by non-homogeneity in compacted loess density might lead to the formation of fissures in the loess-filled slope. It was founded that the wetting deformation contributed to the development of differential settlement. Fissures are the essential factor for the loess-filled slope failure. Four deformation stages exhibit in the loess-filled slope prior final failure including development of the fissures, softening of the compacted loess, creeping of the slope leading edge and fissuring of the trailing edge and formation of the through-sliding surface. Development of the sliding surface mainly includes upward and downward expansion of the fissures. Upward expansion is a wetting failure process in loading condition, while downward expansion is a load-off wetting process. In addition, development of the sliding surface is accelerated by softening of the compacted soils as a result of water infiltration. Therefore, the key for taking countermeasures against filling landslides is to monitor and control the development of differential settlement and fissures in the slope shoulders. Digging out and extra-filling the fissures are an effective way for preventing these landslides.  相似文献   

Application of incomplete similarity theory to the estimation of the mean velocity of debris flows     

Tao Wang  Jiangang Chen  Xiaoqing Chen  Yong You  Niansheng Cheng 《Landslides》2018,15(10):2083-2091

The mean velocity of debris flow is one of the most important parameters in the design of mitigation structures and in quantitative risk analysis. This study develops a model to predict the mean debris flow velocity observed in the field by applying the incomplete similarity argument. An equation for estimating the Darcy-Weisbach resistance coefficient for debris flows with a volumetric sediment concentration larger than 0.19 is accordingly derived using 128 sets of observation data from nine Chinese gullies, in which both the effect of the volumetric sediment concentration and channel slope on resistance are considered. The derived equation is then verified and compared against five previously published equations by using 61 sets of published observation data from six gullies located in four countries. The applications of the proposed equation are discussed, and the improvements made using the proposed equation are clearly very significant when compared with the previously published equations.  相似文献   

Development mechanism for the landslide at Xinlu Village,Chongqing, China     

Lianheng Zhao  Shi Zuo  Dongping Deng  Zheng Han  Biao Zhao 《Landslides》2018,15(10):2075-2081

Due to the continuous and intense rainfall from June 26 to 28, 2016, Xinlu Village in Ganshui Town, Qijiang District, Chongqing, experienced a unitary-slip landslide at approximately UTC+8 19:30 on June 28. This landslide disrupted the Chuan-Qian railway and damaged four residential buildings. To analyze and rehabilitate the landslide, the engineering geology, hydrological conditions, and deformation instability mechanism of this landslide were investigated and comprehensively analyzed based on an in situ survey, geophysical drilling, and a laboratory quick-shearing test. The results show that the landslide is a typical gradual progressive landslide.  相似文献   

Establishment of ICL Italian network   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Nicola Casagli  Veronica Tofani 《Landslides》2018,15(10):1907-1908

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ICL journal “<Emphasis Type="Italic">Landslides</Emphasis>” and the Kyoto 2020 Commitment     

Kyoji Sassa 《Landslides》2018,15(9):1705-1712

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Identification of shear strength and seismic coefficient by back analyzing surficial slides in the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake     

Surangani Bandara  Satoru Ohtsuka  Yutaka Fukumoto 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2255-2266

Sliding of natural and artificial slopes generally occurs during or following strong earthquakes. Such sliding is greatly affected by a combination of geological conditions and earthquake loading. Earthquake-induced landslides often cause more damage to infrastructure and human lives than the earthquake itself. Pseudo-static analysis is widely implemented as one of several design methods used in engineering practice to assess the seismic stability of natural and artificial slopes. However, the most important issue of pseudo-static analysis is to select the most appropriate method for measuring seismic coefficient. In order to investigate this, back analysis was conducted for surficial slides subjected to strong ground motion during the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake in Japan. This paper surveyed the stochastic properties of earthquake-induced surficial slides and clearly showed that the obtained results were applicable to back analysis of shear strength and seismic coefficient. In back analysis, soil properties such as soil strength and density and sliding depth were assumed as random variables owing to their uncertainties. Seismic coefficient is also assumed to be a random variable and varies with distance from the epicenter fault line. The analysis of 4504 recorded surficial slides clearly shows a unique relationship of landslide occurrence ratio with slope angle and distance from the epicenter fault line. This study’s results enhance the calculation of the shear strength of weathered soil covering slopes and the horizontal seismic coefficient through back analysis procedure. By considering possible stochastic properties of variables, some case studies were implemented in the back analysis.  相似文献   

Comparison of single- and dual-permeability models in simulating the unsaturated hydro-mechanical behavior in a rainfall-triggered landslide     

Wei Shao  Zongji Yang  Junjun Ni  Ye Su  Wen Nie  Xieyao Ma 《Landslides》2018,15(12):2449-2464

Landslide-prone slopes in earthquake-affected areas commonly feature heterogeneity and high permeability due to the presence of cracks and fissures that were caused by ground shaking. Landslide reactivation in heterogeneous slope may be affected by preferential flow that was commonly occurred under heavy rainfall. Current hydro-mechanical models that are based on a single-permeability model consider soil as a homogeneous continuum, which, however, cannot explicitly represent the hydraulic properties of heterogeneous soil. The present study adopted a dual-permeability model, using two Darcy-Richards equations to simulate the infiltration processes in both matrix and preferential flow domains. The hydrological results were integrated with an infinite slope stability approach, attempting to investigate the hydro-mechanical behavior. A coarse-textured unstable slope in an earthquake-affected area was chosen for conducting artificial rainfall experiment, and in the experiment slope, failure was triggered several times under heavy rainfall. The simulated hydro-mechanical results of both single- and dual-permeability model were compared with the measurements, including soil moisture content, pore water pressure, and slope stability conditions. Under high-intensity rainfall, the measured soil moisture and pore water pressure at 1-m depth showed faster hydrological response than its simulations, which can be regarded as a typical evidence of preferential flow. We found the dual-permeability model substantially improved the quantification of hydro-mechanical processes. Such improvement could assist in obtaining more reliable landslide-triggering predication. In the light of the implementation of a dual-permeability model for slope stability analysis, a more flexible and robust early warning system for shallow landslides hazard in coarse-textured slopes could be provided.  相似文献   

Tectonic significance of Triassic mafic rocks in the June Complex,Sanandaj–Sirjan zone,Iran     

Farzaneh Shakerardakani  Franz Neubauer  Xiaoming Liu  Manfred Bernroider  Behzad Monfaredi  Albrecht von Quadt 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2018,111(1-2):13-33

This study concentrates on the petrological and geochemical investigation of mafic rocks embedded within the voluminous Triassic June Complex of the central Sanandaj–Sirjan zone (Iran), which are crucial to reconstruct the geodynamics of the Neotethyan passive margin. The Triassic mafic rocks are alkaline to sub-alkaline basalts, containing 43.36–49.09 wt% SiO₂, 5.19–20.61 wt% MgO and 0.66–4.59 wt% total alkalis. Based on MgO concentrations, the mafic rocks fall into two groups: cumulates (Mg# = 51.61–58.94) and isotropic basaltic liquids (Mg# = 24.54–42.66). In all samples, the chondrite-normalized REE patterns show enrichment of light REEs with variable (La/Yb)_N ratios ranging from 2.48 to 9.00, which confirm their amalgamated OIB-like and E-MORB-like signatures. Enrichment in large-ion lithophile elements and depletion in high field strength elements (HFSE) relative to the primitive mantle further support this interpretation. No samples point to crustal contamination, all having undergone fractionation of olivine + clinopyroxene + plagioclase. Nevertheless, elemental data suggest that the substantial variations in (La/Sm)_PM and Zr/Nb ratios can be explained by variable degrees of partial melting rather than fractional crystallization from a common parental magma. The high (Nb/Yb)_PM ratio in the alkaline mafic rocks points to the mixing of magmas from enriched and depleted mantle sources. Abundant OIB alkaline basalts and rare E-MORB appear to be linked to the drifting stage on the northern passive margin of the Neotethys Ocean.  相似文献